It’s also worth mentioning that economic conditions will influence what we think of as an “extremist” movement.

Take the example of today’s Poland, if the economy keeps on improving, public opinion and politicians are bound to change. Simply because people will get bored and shift focus onto other issues. New generations will grow up and think the matters their elders are concerned with are of little importance.

If this happens, the histories of 2048 won’t view the social movements of 2018’s Poland as “extremist”, they will just glance over them as: Oh, I think there was some minor social unrest in Poland during the 2010s.

If, on the other hand, Poland’s economy tanks, it provides a ripe field for the same movements to double down on their rhetoric. In 2048 we might be talking about the brutal Polish national socialist uprising of 2020.

Same people, same politicians, different economic circumstances.

Those economic circumstances are mostly outside the control of Poland. They range from demand for Polish engineers, to climate’S influences on the world economy, to some quants playing around with stocks that are tightly related to Poland’s economy.

Similarly, the government of the UK in 2018 is led by politicians which are, by enlarge, tame and boring, especially by British standards. However, due to being thrust into the whole mess that is Brexit, Trump’s US and the illegal immigration crisis, a lot of them will be remembered as part of a government that lead to tremendous change (for better or worst).

I’m not trying to say individual or group action plays no part in extremism, but environmental factors will be a large influence on how much it grows. From a historical view, we only spot the outlier. We only notice the Hitlers of history, the almost Hitlers will be mostly forgotten.